Earlier today, President Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett as the ninth member of the Supreme Court. If confirmed, she will take the seat left vacant by Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Mitch McConnell and other members of the GOP have outright declared their hopes for a “conservative Supreme Court.” Here’s what that might look like:
Conservative Supreme Court vs. The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)
The GOP has been trying to gut and/or dismantled the ACA for years. While the act has its problems – we won’t pretend it doesn’t – more than 20 million Americans were able to obtain insurance after it passed, and it included protections for those with preexisting conditions who might otherwise a) not be able to obtain insurance, or b) only be able to get ruinously expensive insurance.
The ACA was challenged right from the get-go. Previously, the Supreme Court was divided (largely along political lines), with Justice Roberts siding with the liberals to keep the act intact.
The Supreme Court is currently expected to hear California vs. Texas, which directly challenges the ACA, on November 10. Here’s a quick timeline of the lead-up:
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- In 2012, federal District Judge Reed O’Connor said the ACA was valid
- In 2017, the Republicans passed a $1.5 trillion tax cut, repealing the tax that required people to have insurance (thus pushing them into the insurance marketplace)
- In February 2018, GOP-led attorneys argued that without the penalty the requirement to buy insurance is unconstitutional
- In December 2018 federal District Judge Reed O’Connor agreed with their argument
- The case was shifted to the three-judge 5th Circuit appeals court panel in New Orleans, which agreed with O’Connor’s ruling. Democrats wanted to wait on another ruling in the Supreme Court.
If the ACA is struck down – and if conservatives get their wish, Barrett’s appointment will all but ensure that – ”at least 20 million Americans … could lose health coverage right away,” according to NPR. “Many millions more would lose the law’s popular protections that guarantee coverage for people with preexisting health conditions, including those who have had COVID-19.”
Here are some other preexisting conditions:
- Acne
- Anxiety
- Asthma
- Cancer
- Depression
- Pregnancy
- Stroke
Conservative Supreme Court vs. DACA (Immigration)
DACA, or Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, is an Obama-era immigration policy. It is geared toward undocumented immigrants who were brought here as children; if approved for the program, these individuals receive a two-year “deferred action from deportation and become eligible for a work permit.”
In June 2020, the Supreme Court blocked the Trump’s administration from ending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals. Chief Justice John Roberts once again stood with the liberals in this 5-4 ruling, if you need an indication of how narrow a margin protected it. According to the Washington Post, “Trump has decried these moves as “shotgun blasts” into the faces of Republicans.”
The administration is disregarding the ruling, as it said it will reject new applicants, launch a review of DACA, and only renew protections for current immigrants under the program for one year instead of the agreed-upon two years stated in the policy.
With Ginsburg gone and a conservative in her place, the scales could be tipped, allowing the Trump administration to end DACA once and for all. Trump’s “Public Charge Rule” will also soon be brought to the court. This rule would not allow immigrants to gain legal permanent residency if there is a possibility they will need assistance – ever – from public services. They also wouldn’t be included in the census count.
This also impacts those under Temporary Protective Status, who are often fleeing conflicts in their home countries.
Conservative Supreme Court vs. Roe v. Wade
The GOP has used Roe v. Wade as political ammunition for years: just about every Republican candidate that has run for president in the past 40 or so years has talked about knocking it down. Democrats, meanwhile, have consistently supported the right to choose.
Barrett, for the record, may not be their knight in shining armor: She’s said in the past, “The fundamental element, that the woman has a right to choose abortion, will probably stand.”
Even if Barrett arrives ready and willing to personally dismantle Roe v. Wade, it will not happen overnight. First, abortion-related cases must make their way through the system. According to MarketWatch, “There were 17 abortion-related cases before U.S. circuit courts of appeals as of Sunday, according to a list provided by a Planned Parenthood spokesperson. That’s only “one step away from the Supreme Court,” Anisha Singh, the director of judiciary and democracy affairs for the pro-abortion rights Planned Parenthood Action Fund.”
If Roe v. Wade does get directly challenged, and is chipped away at and/or struck down – which, again, will take some time – what happens? Well, according to ABC News, it likely reverts to the states. As things stand now, abortion will likely remain legal in 21 states.
What else can a conservative Supreme Court court do? Well, it can restrict access to the best way to prevent abortions: birth control. The Supreme Court has already upheld a Trump administration regulation exempting private employers from covering birth control on their insurance due to religious objections.
We’re hopeful, of course, that the Supreme Court can remain its own entity and not be swayed by one “side” or another, but that’s looking less and less like a possibility. We’ll be watching the confirmation hearings, just like you, and wondering where to go from here.
